False Alarm, by Bjorn Lomborg

Bjorn Lomborg made waves in 1990s with The Skeptical Environmentalist, bucking against the conventional wisdom of environmental alarmists.  His new book False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet updates this message.  Global warming and environmental issues are not easy issues, but Lomborg has a rather simple message.

First of all, Lomborg is not a "climate change denier" who hates science and rejects the mainstream scientific consensus that the earth is warming.  His message is this: "climate change is real," and "global warming is mostly caused by humans," but "fears of a climate apocalypse are unfounded.  Global warming is real, but it is not the end of the world."

Lomborg wants scientists and their willing accomplices in the press to dial back the panic, and put in place policies and strategies that will actually address problems related to global warming, not waste money trying to reduce carbon emissions.  Most policies designed to address carbon emissions are exceedingly costly with minimal impact on temperature change.  For example, on the question of rising ocean levels and the risk of low-lying areas being permanently flooded, Lomborg argues that the cost of building dikes and flood control measures is minuscule compared to losses from any potential flooding.  Similarly, when a drought or famine occurs, many will respond by calling on reduced carbon emissions to address warming, but the impact of those measures is insignificant, and a much smaller investment can address poverty and food production in affected areas.

But the larger point is that the alarmists are simply wrong about the impact of global warming.  "Deaths caused by climate-related disasters have declined precipitously over the past century."  "Is extreme weather causing more damage to human life?  The answer is a resounding no."  "The incidence of flooding is not on the rise, nor is there any evidence that global warming has led to more floods."  And when the media and scientists promote an alarmist perspective, it "leads to policies that while well intentioned, crowd out much more effective ways of helping people."

The ways we have tried to address climate change have not been effective.  Lomborg concludes that "today's popular climate change policies of rolling out solar panels and wind turbines have insidious effects; they push up energy costs, hurt the poor, cut emissions ineffectively, and put us on an unsustainable pathway where taxpayers are eventually likely to revolt.  Instead, we need to invest in innovation, smart carbon taxes, R&D into geoengineering, and adaptation."  His perspective also places the human condition at the center.  "We can improve the human condition far more by opening the world to free trade, ending tuberculosis, and ensuring access to nutrition, contraception, health, education, and technology."

Lomborg rejects mainstream responses to global warming while accepting the mainstream view that global warming is a real, man-made problem with serious consequences.  He just wants the scientific and public policy decision makers to stop and examine the costs and benefits of policies they promote.  To many are costly and ineffective.  To him, the problem is not simply that resources are being wasted, but that diverting funds from "opportunities we have to improve life for billions of people" is "morally wrong."  I wish I had confidence that U.S. political and thought leaders shared this perspective.

Thanks to NetGalley and the publisher for the complimentary electronic review copy!